By Roger Chesneau, Ray Rimell
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Its progress will be eagerly monitored. 24). Changing demand trends in Brazil drive this deceleration. Outside Brazil, gas consumption growth in the region actually gathers momentum. Low prices and ample supplies (in the form of both LNG and Bolivian gas backed out of the Brazilian system) offset the impact of slower economic activity, which in some cases is amplified by the sharp fall in commodity export revenues. 24 Latin America gas demand by country and by sector, 2001-21 100 50 100 50 0 0 2001 2006 Argentina Trinidad and Tobago Others 2011 Brazil Colombia Bolivia 2016 2021 Venezuela Peru 2001 2006 2011 2014 Power generation Residential and commercial Energy industry own use 2016 2021 Industry Transport Losses © OECD/IEA, 2016 Brazil Two factors drive the negative outlook for Brazil’s gas demand.
Based on new legislation, Argentina aims to include renewable energy in its energy matrix, extend the lifetime of one of its nuclear power plants and build new nuclear capacity to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons. It targets an 8% share of renewables (excluding large hydro) in electricity generation by 2017. While better supply availability will allow pent-up demand to be met, the introduction of higher prices – needed to cover supply costs and incentivise new investments – will slow underlying consumption growth, helping reduce shortages.
In an attempt to expand the use of gas, the government launched a new allocation regulation at the end of 2015, shifting the focus to the transportation sector, households and small-scale customers (Cahyafitri, 2016a). In light of its priority access, gas use for the production of fertilisers is expected to continue to grow robustly over the forecast period. 9 Mt to 19 Mt by 2019. The expansion is part of a broader government plan to modernise the ageing fertiliser industry and ensure that local fertiliser producers are capable of meeting a projected sharp increase in future demand.