By John Mauldin

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Example text

As the resources of a company or nation accumulate and are put to work, the company or nation becomes more prosperous, and earnings increase. If a nation (or its businesses) fails to increase its resources, the ability of those resources to produce a profit will decrease over time. That means earnings will decrease. The collective P/R ratio is the estimate of the value investors put on the ability of an economy to produce earnings. With this understanding, it now gets interesting, at least for me.

It is one thing to use the stars, as the ancients did, to construct a calendar to predict seasons, planting times, and weather patterns. It is another to use the stars to predict personal fortunes. One methodology has a basis in fundamentals whereas astrology simply notices patterns that, like much stock market analysis, may have no connection or can be manipulated for personal benefit. Alexander provides, at least for me, the missing link between the patterns in long wave stock cycles and the underlying economic fundamentals.

He defines a bubble as a 40-year event in which statistics go well beyond the norm, a two-standard-deviation event. Every one of the 28 went back to trend—no exceptions, no new eras, not a single one that we can find in history. S. market today, as it was in 2001, is still in bubble territory, as it has not come back to trend. Let me repeat for emphasis: with no exceptions, bubbles and markets will come back to trend. Grantham notes that many markets and bubbles not only come back to trend, but go down right on past the trend line.

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