By CMR of Xiamen University

The learn group makes the next forecasts: First, in 2013 China’s progress will stay reliable and achieve 8.23 percentage, a rise of 0.43 percent issues in comparison with the former yr; even if there's inflation strain caused by international financial easing, serious inflation in China is not likely to ensue, and the shopper rate index (CPI) will stay at 3.11 percentage. moment, the expansion of imports and exports will rebound, however the exchange surplus will lessen additional. ultimately, the proportion of funding in GDP will stay excessive within the brief time period as urbanization promotes the expansion of fastened resources funding, although larger in step with capita earning will lead to excessive and regular consumption.

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Extra resources for China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, February 2013

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To appropriately control the growth of government fiscal revenue, and transfer the exempted revenue to the low-income residents. Although generally macroeconomic forecasts would not discuss in the very long term, I think this report is a good try. Besides, the adjustment of fiscal policy is a big problem, and it is related to national income distribution. It seems that it is difficult to discuss such problems perfectly in only one report. At least it needs to illustrate what we should do in the short term for such adjustment.

We should promote the development of the service industry through more labor division, and owing to knowledge spillovers by investment on the people’s concepts, knowledge, education and institutions, urbanization could get increasing returns to scale, which would create more employment, high-quality output. 2. Based on the adjustment of urbanization, China’s existing taxation system should turn to adjust to urbanization rather than industrialization. The main source of tax revenue based on industrialization is the value-added tax, 90 % of which is from the enterprises.

Different from the first scenario, in the second scenario, we assume that the decreased part of the government fiscal revenue would only be transferred to low-income residents in order to narrow the income gap among residents. The “Guidelines on deepening reform in the income distribution system” which was issued by the State Council on February third, 2013 pointed out that one of the major goals of deepening the reform of income distribution would be to reduce poverty significantly, to expand the number of the middle-income residents, and thus gradually form the distribution structure as “rugby-shaped”.

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