By International Energy Agency
The context for international gasoline markets is altering speedily, elevating new demanding situations for and coverage makers alike. The slowdown in Asian fuel call for that begun in 2014 intensified in 2015, prompting an extraordinary decline within the region's LNG imports and pushing costs to new lows. because the international prepares to welcome a wide wave of recent LNG tasks, industry gamers are left with one burning query: the place will all that gasoline go?
Heavily oversupplied markets within the brief time period have prompted sharp funding cuts around the undefined; if under-investment persists it could possibly sow the seeds of a vintage bust-boom commodity cycle. not like earlier downturns, even if, this time there's larger uncertainty approximately destiny call for prospects.
Caught among reasonable coal and persisted coverage help for renewables, international gasoline call for has to this point didn't react to the steep fall in costs. members are actually puzzling over no matter if this can be transitority or no matter if it marks the start of structurally decrease development for gasoline call for. How international locations think again environmental regulations within the aftermath of the Paris contract might be key to making a choice on what comes subsequent for gas.
The Medium-Term gasoline industry document 2016 assesses those traits and gives a close research of worldwide call for provide and alternate improvement via 2021. It additionally explores the hyperlinks among today’s oversupply and rising shifts in alternate styles, pricing mechanisms and industry buildings that experience the capability to considerably reshape the worldwide fuel over the following couple of years.
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Additional info for Medium-Term Gas Market Report 2016
Its progress will be eagerly monitored. 24). Changing demand trends in Brazil drive this deceleration. Outside Brazil, gas consumption growth in the region actually gathers momentum. Low prices and ample supplies (in the form of both LNG and Bolivian gas backed out of the Brazilian system) offset the impact of slower economic activity, which in some cases is amplified by the sharp fall in commodity export revenues. 24 Latin America gas demand by country and by sector, 2001-21 100 50 100 50 0 0 2001 2006 Argentina Trinidad and Tobago Others 2011 Brazil Colombia Bolivia 2016 2021 Venezuela Peru 2001 2006 2011 2014 Power generation Residential and commercial Energy industry own use 2016 2021 Industry Transport Losses © OECD/IEA, 2016 Brazil Two factors drive the negative outlook for Brazil’s gas demand.
Based on new legislation, Argentina aims to include renewable energy in its energy matrix, extend the lifetime of one of its nuclear power plants and build new nuclear capacity to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons. It targets an 8% share of renewables (excluding large hydro) in electricity generation by 2017. While better supply availability will allow pent-up demand to be met, the introduction of higher prices – needed to cover supply costs and incentivise new investments – will slow underlying consumption growth, helping reduce shortages.
In an attempt to expand the use of gas, the government launched a new allocation regulation at the end of 2015, shifting the focus to the transportation sector, households and small-scale customers (Cahyafitri, 2016a). In light of its priority access, gas use for the production of fertilisers is expected to continue to grow robustly over the forecast period. 9 Mt to 19 Mt by 2019. The expansion is part of a broader government plan to modernise the ageing fertiliser industry and ensure that local fertiliser producers are capable of meeting a projected sharp increase in future demand.