By G. Matthew Bonham, Michael J. Shapiro (auth.), G. Matthew Bonham, Michael J. Shapiro (eds.)

This quantity is the made from the convention on Cognitive procedure versions of overseas coverage Decision-Making which was once held in London on the Richardson Institute for clash and Peace examine from March 17-24, 1973. we want to thank Michael Nicholson, Director of the Richardson Institute, for performing because the host of the convention. help for the convention and the guidance of the convention papers for booklet used to be supplied via the Mathematical Social Sciences Board (MSSB). The MSSB is funded by means of aNational technology beginning provide that's administered via the guts for complicated learn within the Behavioral Sciences because the fundamental grantee. we're thankful to Hayward Alker, Jr. and William H. Riker of the MSSB for his or her aid and encouragement. The graph proven at the hide is a cognitive map illustration of the output from our desktop simulation of international coverage decision-making. we want to thank Robert Axelrod and Gary Raffel of the college of Michigan for producing the graph. half I advent 1 bankruptcy 1 notion AND motion IN international coverage G. MATTHEW BONHAM the yank collage MICHAEL J. SHAPIRO collage of Hawaii creation The papers assembled the following represent, and to some degree characterize, greatly disparate perspectives of international coverage considering and decision-making. As is the case with virtually any collective firm, it truly is attainable to signify a few noteworthy resemblances one of the contributions to this quantity and to point grounds for distinguishing them from different "approaches.

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Extra resources for Thought and Action in Foreign Policy: Proceedings of the London Conference on Cognitive Process Models of Foreign Policy March 1973

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Categories and concepts. Not only do analytical concepts vary widely; even the language for describing them ranges from ordinary prose through the formal notation of set theory. Data. The studies draw upon vastly different empir- ieal domains for data and illustrations. At one end of the speetrum are detailed analyses of a single decision-maker, based on interviews and/or content analyses of primary doeuments, and supplementary secondary sources. Jervis (fortheoming) draws on the voluminous reeord of diplomatie history, as well as reports of experimental research, to illustrate the relevance of existing hypotheses, to generate new ones, and to demonstrate the limitations or inapplieability of other explanations.

1966), and disambiguation routines (Stone, 1969) offer the promise of freedom from some of the more mechanical tasks of content analysis. Offsetting these obvious attractions are some less-than-completely resolved problems. These techniques have tended to prove more suitable for research in which inferences are to be drawn from either word/symbol frequencies, or from contingency analysis. However, the validity of many constructs based on word frequencies remain to be firmly established. Methods that yield data about the structure of belief systems generally involve onerous tasks of unitizing and coding, and relatively limited opportunities to use computers, at least without considerable pre-computer syntax 30A further discussion of some aspects of this problem will be found in Anderson's (1973B) dissertation on Senator Arthur Vandenberg, as weIl as in a shorter paper based on that study (Anders on , 1973A).

The criticism may or may not be valid in the case of any given study but the problem is not an inherent attribute of operational code research. , official pronouncements or doctrinal "classics"), nor need they assume that operational code beliefs remain unchanged either for an individual or an elite group. 46 hypothesis, the validity of which is better left to empirical confirmation than to untested premise. At minimum it would appear useful to take some elementary precautions to determine whether in fact the premises of the representational model are valid for the particular case in question.

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